Tonight is the night where another ten artists will take their countries to the Eurovision final to be held this Saturday night; so that leaves the question – who will it be?

There is no easy way to predict who will qualify from tonight’s show but there are surely strong indicators we can use to get a ‘rough’ idea.

Our first analysis identified 9/10 qualifiers; the five sure-qualifiers Greece, Albania, Serbia, Iceland and Belgium plus from eight other possible qualifiers we identified Moldova, Belarus, Portugal and Bosnia & Herzegovina – only missing Russia. Therefore, it’s time for an analysis of semifinal two.

Fans?
Firstly, this year’s OGAE fan stand vote suggests our qualifiers will be Turkey, Israel, Armenia, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Georgia, Croatia, Ireland and Romania.
Photo: OGAE Greece.

Who do you bet?
Last time we looked at the betting – they actually had 9/10 (Slovakia instead of Portugal). So we can get a strong and accurate indication from betting agencies to predict the qualifiers. According to the betting; Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Sweden, Croatia, Israel, Ireland, Romania, Denmark and Georgia have the best odds to qualify to the final.

Eurostars
If we look to some past Eurovision entrants we can get some insight into who may or may not qualify. Morena, who represented Malta back in 2008, believes Denmark, Israel, Croatia, Turkey, Sweden, Armenia, Switzerland, Azerbaijan, Romania, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Cyprus and Georgia are the leading songs of the semifinal. Romanian representative 2006, Mihai Traistariu, picked the best songs as Switzerland, Lithuania, Cyprus, Croatia, Israel, Azerbaijan and Armenia. About Switzerland, Mihai said to escdaily.com, “So strange. I like it very much! The refrain is very easy to remember and I can hear it on radios and clubs!”. Our last Eurostar, Robert Meloni the Pirate from Latvia (2007 & 2008) likes the songs from Armenia, Israel and Sweden.

Therefore, the main favourites of our Eurostars this year are; Armenia, Israel, Sweden and Switzerland.

Readers?
Finally, our readers have also begun to have their say on who they think will make Saturday’s final. The poll we launched last night has already had over 1,000 votes and according to our readers so far our ten finalists are; Turkey (112 votes), Sweden (96 votes), Armenia (95 votes), Romania (93 votes), Israel (92 votes)
Azerbaijan (90 votes), Croatia (86 votes), Ireland (77 votes), Denmark (66 votes) and Georgia (59 votes). Continue to vote here!

So what does this conclude?

Well, unfortunately nothing. From the above, countries like Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Israel and Sweden are the strongest favourites to qualify – therefore who will take the last five spots? Well we can only suggest from the above who it may be. Some more consistent mentions go to Denmark, Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and Croatia. Wait that’s 10? Well no, this semifinal is a bit more ‘complicated’.

Ok so now let’s bring in what I call “the new Russia Factor” – although Ukraine is not a favourite, chances are, based on their record, they will in fact qualify. Therefore countries like Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine – who have 100% qualification records – look set to qualify. Then we have the comical Lithuania which brings back (chilling) memories from 2006. Can they do it again?

Complicated right…

Anyway here is my ten: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Denmark, Georgia, Israel, Lithuania, Romania, Sweden, Turkey and Ukraine. Err… eleven?

So what big song will miss out? Who will be the Slovakian (apparently arguably) tragedy of Semifinal two? I say be prepared for several shocks.

Stay tuned for the semi at 21:00 CET.