“The second Eurovision semi final seems tougher than the first”

Allocation Draw Eurovision 2018

We only have two songs yet for the Eurovision Song Contest 2018 in Lisbon. But even now, after the semi final allocation, we can already say that the second semi final will be the toughest of the two shows in may of this year.

It may sound strange, because the second semi final only has 18 participating countries battling for ten tickets to the final. In the first semi final, there will be one more elimination, as there are 19 countries taking part. However, based on the strength in the past of every nation in the contest, the second semi final seems to have nearly all the strong countries at the Eurovision Song Contest in one show.

The result of the semi final allocation draw

Chief editor Steef van Gorkum: “Australia has a bad draw for Eurovision 2018”

In this podcast below, you can hear ESCDaily’s chief editor Steef van Gorkum about the draw. And he is not happy, as Australia is in the first half of this tough first semi final. It will be a tough task for Jessica Mauboy, to qualify for the final:

Many strong nations since the two semi final system all in one show

The statistics prove the point of Van Gorkum. The colors in the stats below clearly show the most ‘green nations’ in the second semi final. Yes, Azerbaijan, Greece, Armenia and Iceland are of course nations that seem to do well in the Eurovision semi’s. But compared to the statistics of the nations in semi final 2, they still have a lot to gain.

In these statistics, we have looked at the result of each country since the two semi final system has been started at Eurovision, which is the year 2008. Of course, the game changed even more a couple of years later with the return of the jury at the contest, but it already gives a clear image of how each nation has been performing in recent years.

The results of the past for both semi finals based on all-time statistics

When we look at the all-time statistics of semi finals at the Eurovision Song Contest and the draw of today, we still see that in the first semi final, Azerbaijan (always qualified), Greece and Armenia are the strongest nations in the pack. Behind these three nations, the percentage of qualifying from a semi final immediately drops to around 50% with Croatia. It looks like many countries in the first semi final will get the chance to improve their numbers this year.

The second show, the one Australia is one, shows a whole different perspective. The first country which is in the 50% qualifying rate region is Malta. Where Croatia is ranked fourth in the first semi final, we see Malta ranked a 12th in the second semi final. Countries that are usually present in the final of Eurovision such as Russia, Romania, Ukraine, Sweden, Hungary, Denmark and Norway are all in the same show as Australia. What an evening this will be on the 10th of May…

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