Oslo 2010: Analysis of the final

Tonight is the night where twenty five songs, twenty five artists and twenty five nations battle it our to be this years Eurovision winner and therefore have the right to be next years host.

So, who will it be?
Who will win?

There is no easy way to predict the winner but there are surely strong indicators we can use to get a ‘rough’ idea.

Our last predictions scored from semifinal one; 9/10 (our readers 7/10); and from semifinal two; 9/10 (readers 8/10). Our voting casualties in our predictions were Slovakia, Poland and Malta from semifinal one plus Croatia and Sweden from semifinal two.

The current top ten is; Israel (1417), Iceland (1266), Greece (1204), Serbia (1161), Germany (1156), Spain (1030), Belgium (937), Norway (884), Ireland (816) and Denmark (788).
View the photo here.

Who do you bet?
Last time we looked at the betting – from semifinal one they predicted 9/10 (Slovakia instead of Portugal) and from semifinal two they predicted 8/10 (Sweden & Croatia instead of Cyprus & Ukraine).

Here is are the top ten betting odds for the final;
Azerbaijan (4/11), Germany (7/2), Armenia (11/2), Israel (13/2), Turkey (11), Denmark (12), Greece (18), Belgium (28), Ireland (40) and Georgia (45).

If we look to some past Eurovision entrants we can get some insight into who may win this year. Morena, Malta 2008, believes Denmark is our winner. Thea Garrett, Maltese representative this year, believes Greece will win. Mihai Traistariu’s two favourites, Switzerland and Lithuania, did not make the final so his 8 points went to Iceland.

Finally, our readers have also begun to have their say on who they think will win. Currently one country has over 40% of the almost 1000 votes. Another interesting fact is from the top five countries, two are automatic finalists.

So what does this conclude?
Well, I believe the final is very open this year – could it be one of the many ballads? Or will a mid-tempo song win it? Could one of the rock songs sneak in and shock us all? Well, anything is possible.

This year, I’m leaning towards an Armenian, Israeli or Danish victory but Belgium, Greece and Turkey have excellent chances to win. Personally from the rehearsals I do not see the two betting favourites being close to a win. BUT expect a close final and “surprise” winner.

Stay tuned for the semi at 21:00 CET.