Australia: ‘Draw not important when you go for victory’

In this article, we will analyse the allocation draw for the second semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2016, in which Australia takes part. “There are loads of countries with just a 50/50 record of qualifying,” states chief editor Steef van Gorkum.

As we know, Australia will take part in the first half of this second semi final, which is larger than the first one with 19 countries fighting for 10 places in the final. It is not a great draw, but it is not bad either, thinks our chief editor: “You always want to be in the second half of a semi, since countries that perform later generally do better at Eurovision. But I am sure Australia wants to come up with something that will compete for victory, and when you do that, this allocation draw is not that important. You will qualify either way.”

“It is a slightly weaker semi, I counted roughly seven really good countries. There are loads of countries with a 50/50 record and a couple of countries that have never finished above 8 in the semi final. Australia should be able to beat these weaker countries.”

It is hard to predict how Australia will do in the semi final, since they will be taking part in this for the first time. When we look at the statistics of the other participating countries, we can see some interesting numbers. But, be careful with these statistics, as they do not say everything about the cahcnes of qualifying, adds Van Gorkum: “Statistics do not say anything about the chances to qualify per sé, but they show which countries have scored good in the long term and seem to take the contest serious. And whether a country is taking the contest serious is a major factor in determing the chances of each nation.”

When we look at the percentage of each country qualifying for the final, since we have semi finals, we see that there is a big gap in performing well at Eurovision between Romania, Ukraine, Norway, Georgia, Serbia, Denmark and the other 13 countries taking part:

SEMI 2 All time (since 2004)
Romania 9 out of 9 100,00%
Ukraine 9 out of 9 100,00%
Norway 7 out of 9 77,77%
Georgia 6 out of 8 75,00%
Serbia 5 out of 7 71,42%
Denmark 7 out of 10 70,00%
Lithuania 6 out of 11 54,54%
Albania 6 out of 11 54,54%
Ireland 5 out of 10 50,00%
Israel 5 out of 11 45,45%
FYR Macedonia 5 out of 12 41,66%
Latvia 4 out of 11 36,36%
Belarus 4 out of 12 33,33%
Poland 3 out of 9 33,33%
Slovenia 4 out of 12 33,33%
Switzerland 3 out of 11 27,27%
Belgium 3 out of 11 27,27%
Bulgaria 1 out of 9 11,11%

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But when we take a closer look at the current contest (two semi finals with a 50% jury vote added since 2010) we see that Ireland and Lithuania are also strong qualifying contenders, based on their past:

SEMI 2 Current ESC (since 2010)
Romania 6 out of 6 100,00%
Ukraine 5 out of 5 100,00%
Serbia 4 out of 5 80,00%
Denmark 4 out of 5 80,00%
Norway 4 out of 5 80,00%
Ireland 4 out of 6 66,66%
Lithuania 4 out of 6 66,66%
Georgia 4 out of 6 66,66%
Belarus 3 out of 6 50,00%
Poland 2 out of 4 50,00%
Albania 3 out of 6 50,00%
Slovenia 3 out of 6 50,00%
Belgium 3 out of 6 50,00%
Switzerland 2 out of 6 33,33%
Israel 2 out of 6 33,33%
Latvia 1 out of 6 16,66%
FYR Macedonia 1 out of 6 16,66%
Bulgaria 0 out of 4 0,00%

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Fun thing at Eurovision is, it is always about the songs and the total package. That remains the most important factor to keep in mind, aside from all these statistics. But they do show which countries are taking the contest serious and have booked good results over a longer period of time.