According to the bookmakers, Duncan Laurence from The Netherlands is the big favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2019. The main question will be: Can the youngster stand the pressure of being the man to beat?
Duncan Laurence has been the number one for the bookmakers ever since his song ‘Arcade’ was released and Sergey Lazarev presented his song ‘Scream’. Together with John Lundvik from Sweden and Luca Hänni from Switzerland, the top-4 of the bookies consists of all-male artists.
Bookmakers favourite in recent years
In recent years the favourite of the bookies has had mixed results at Eurovision. In 2012, 2013 and 2015, the favourite also won the competition. But in 2016 and 2017, Russia (3rd place) and Italy (6th place) did not win the trophy.
Netta was the leader of the pack for almost the entire season, but got surpassed by Eleni from Cyprus one day before the final. In the end, Israel won the 2018-edition after all.
Netherlands hasn’t been the favourite since 1989
It is a unique situation for The Netherlands. The country has not been the favourite to win Eurovision since 1989. Back then, they messed it up big time, making their actual last victory one that has been a long time ago: 1975.
Back in 1989 of course, the Eurovision Song Contest is uncomparible to what it is nowadays. Just one week of rehearsals, reviewed by only a few people, the bookmakers don’t have all the information they have anno 2019.
A shock surprise, like the rise and fall of Justine Pelmelay in 1989, is not likely to happen with Duncan Laurence.
The Netherlands switched their strategy in 2013
The Netherlands has had a streak of non-qualifications at Eurovision, until things turned around for them in 2013. Famous and arrived star Anouk wanted to go to the biggest music competition in the world, and after a short hesitation, broadcaster Tros decided to change their strategy.
No young and upcoming talents to Eurovision, but astablished and arrived artists should take the big stage. The results were stunning, with qualifications for the final every year, except for 2015.
In 2019, The Netherlands did not go for a big name. But, as Cornald Maas said on behalf of the selection commitee: The song that we heard from Duncan, was one we could not ignore.
Why Duncan Laurence won’t win Eurovision?
It is the biggest question mark we have. Duncan Laurence has a lack of experience performing on live television. Let alone for an audience of millions of people. Some unexperienced artists have a natural chemistry with the camera, but some don’t. It is a risk. The first live performance though, are impressive enough to keep him the man to beat so far.
The song ‘Arcade’ has been received with lots of praise. It is modern, emotional and makes a lot of impact. An intimate, rather easy, staging should do the trick visually. Hans Pannecoucke, who staged the Common Linnets, but als Trijntje Oosterhuis and Manel, can show his success was not a one day fly.