Eurovision 2016: ‘A lot of big hitters in semi final 1’

In this article, we will analyse the allocation draw of the first semi final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2016. There is a lot to be excited about for this show on the 10th of May, because: “A lot of big hitters are in this semi final,” says chief editor Steef van Gorkum from ESC Daily.

“We have a lot of countries in this semi final with a hundred percent qualifying record,” he states. A lot of these big hitters are in the first half of the semi. Generally, more countries from the second half of a semi will qualify. But in this semi final, it could be the other way around.”

How important is this allocation draw? Because, of course, we can not tell which countries will qualify purely based on the results from the past. “Of course it is always about the songs and the total package. Statistics will not make you qualify for the final, but they are important when you want to try to estimate how good an entry is going to be. We don’t know all the songs and total packages yet, we are still speculating. But when we look, for instance, at the track record Greece, we see that they have always qualified with a place about spot 7. That proves to me that they always come up with a good entry.”

Besides Greece, we see that Russia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Armenia have came up with good entries over the years, as they all have amazing track records. Especially compared to many countries in the second semi final:

SEMI 1 All time (since 2004)  
Greece 9 out of 9 100,00%
Russia 8 out of 8 100,00%
Azerbaijan 7 out of 7 100,00%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 7 out of 7 100,00%
Armenia 9 out of 10 90,00%
Hungary 7 out of 9 77,77%
Moldova 8 out of 11 72,72%
Iceland 7 out of 11 63,63%
Finland 6 out of 11 54,54%
Malta 5 out of 10 50,00%
Croatia 4 out of 9 44,44%
Estonia 5 out of 12 41,66%
Cyprus 4 out of 10 40,00%
Austria 2 out of 6 33,33%
Montenegro 2 out of 7 28,57%
The Netherlands 3 out of 12 25,00%
San Marino 1 out of 6 16,66%
Czech Republic 0 out of 4 0,00%

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When looking at the more recent years, we see that also Hungary and Iceland have showed their skills and a long term strategy that has proven succesful:>/p>

SEMI 1 Current ESC (since 2010)
Greece 6 out of 6 100,00%
Hungary 5 out of 5 100,00%
Russia 6 out of 6 100,00%
Azerbaijan 5 out of 5 100,00%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 out of 3 100,00%
Iceland 5 out of 6 83,33%
Armenia 4 out of 5 80,00%
Moldova 4 out of 6 66,66%
Estonia 4 out of 6 66,66%
Cyprus 3 out of 5 60,00%
Finland 3 out of 6 50,00%
Malta 3 out of 6 50,00%
Montenegro 2 out of 4 50,00%
Austria 2 out of 4 50,00%
The Netherlands 2 out of 6 33,33%
San Marino 1 out of 5 20,00%
Croatia 0 out of 4 0,00%
Czech Republic 0 out of 1 0,00%

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Fun thing at Eurovision is, it is always about the songs and the total package. That remains the most important factor to keep in mind, aside from all these statistics. But they do show which countries are taking the contest serious and have booked good results over a longer period of time.