Editorial: Analysing the Eurovision Odds for 2012

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As the 26TH of May draws ever closer bookmakers seem content with their ESC odds and the makeup of the betting market. There have been very few changes to the initial Eurovision Song Contest 2012 Odds over the last month and no country has been hugely supported. We have to dig a little deeper to garner any clues from their odds compilers on their true thoughts.

Sweden from the getgo have been Eurovision favourites and they look worthy of this position. The club track Euphoria by Loreen is currently a best price of 5/2, and it is thought that this has more to do with the bookmakers not being able to see anything to beat it rather than the quality of the Swedish song.

Many of this year’s entries are woeful and seeing that countries have a whole year to come up with a winning song the selection process of many Eurovision countries needs to be radically altered.

Countries whose Eurovision odds have shortened albeit not by a great deal include Italy although that may be more to do with political considerations (Eurovision organisers are desperate not to see Italy leave the contest again). The Italians are now second favourites but in a head to head with Sweden there would only be one winner.

Serbia are another mover, available at around 14/1 a £€10 bet would return £€150 to the Eurovision tipster, however the song is not sung in English and this may deter some countries from giving them 12 points.

A better chance could be given to Iceland at around 20/1, they have been supported in from 40/1 and the duo of Greta Salóme & Jónsi have a good chance of making the top 4. At a quarter of the current odds 1-2-3-4 you would receive £€30 back for your £€5 each way bet if they came 2nd 3rd or 4th.

At this stage of the competition when considering a Eurovision Bet we would not dissuade anyone from looking at countries at much bigger odds. Apart from Sweden there is no stand out song so if we can find a big priced country that can come 2nd, 3rd or 4th you will make a profit.

The two countries with typical Eurovision songs that may go down well with the Eurovision crowd are Greece and Romania both currently on offer at a best price of 33/1. If one of those countries makes the top 4 you will make a profit.

There may also be some value in dutching (backing both) Greece and Romania to win Semi Final 1 at around the 8/1 price, the favourites for Semi Final 1 are Denmark and their song is no better than our two selections.

Keep up to date with Eurovision Song Contest 2012 Odds.

Written by Stefanie Reeve