Let’s face it, all of us want to find the Eurovision winner. If we are skilled enough to choose the winning song from 42 countries selections and advise our friends and family of that song’s chances of winning, we have a whole year to bask in the adulation before we try to do it all again in 2013.
From early February the Eurovision family of nations start their national selection process and all manner of musical styles are chosen. By the end of March most countries have made their Eurovision mind up and now begins their journey to avoid returning home with the dreaded nul points.
The early choice of songs and singers gives us a good two months to analyse and compare Russian grannies, Irish twins, quirky Mediterranean ensembles, Scandinavian blondes and UK pensioners. We can now view all the songs on the internet and gauge their popularity via fans polls, these polls are a barometer to the contest.
If a country is towards the head of a fans poll then you can bet the bookies have it towards the head of the Eurovision Odds. It can often be problematic deciphering whether the polls follow the betting or vice versa, but the polls are an important weapon to add to our betting arsenal.
When London Mayoral candidate Boris Johnson was asked ahead of the vote whether he checked the polls he replied that ‘the bookies were a much better guide’ to his chances of winning (he was favourite and won), but we expect his advisors were all over the polls as soon as they were published.
Below you can see the most popular entries by YouTube views, fan polls and Eurovision Odds;
You Tube – Most Popular
If we disseminate all this information and also add in some countries just missing out on one of the top 4 lists above, then we could also add in Croatia, Greece and Romania and check their Eurovision Odds. The bookmakers and polls are rarely wide of the mark when predicting the outcome, although last year’s strongly supported favourite by the polls and bookmakers, Amaury Vassili from France, finished a poor 15th.
At the current 2012 prices Serbia, Greece and Romania are polling well and look good each way value at odds of 14/1, 25/1 and 50/1 respectively. Sweden who feature in two of the lists are worthy favourites, and Russia could come first or last depending on whether Eurovision voters regard them with sympathy or derision.